Integration of Systems Network (SysNet) tools for regional land use scenario analysis in Asia

This paper introduces the approach of the Systems research Network (SysNet) for land use planning in tropical Asia with a focus on its main scientificetechnical output: the development of the land use planning and analysis system (LUPAS) and its component models. These include crop simulation models, expert systems, GIS, and multiple goal linear programming (MGLP) models for land evaluation and optimization. LUPAS was designed as a decision support system (DSS) for strategic land use planning. Integration of LUPAS components in four case studies was performed in a network with national research teams and local stakeholders. This network allowed iterative evaluation and refinement of LUPAS for scenario analysis on technical and policy changes. Several interactive sessions with stakeholders led to more detail in scenarios (goals and constraints), model features and databases. To facilitate negotiation among stakeholders, the MGLP user interface (UI) was developed. In interactive sessions, goal restrictions are tightened to quantify trade-offs between conflicting goals. Choice and degree of tightening reflect the specific priorities for sustainable land use. The development of LUPAS is exemplified for one case study, Ilocos Norte, Philippines. Weak points of the system include inadequate spatial differentiation of socio-economic characteristics, scarce database for quantifying perennials and mixed cropping systems, and insufficient consideration of long-term effects of production technologies on resource quality. However, a promising perspective for effective policy support lies in the possible link of the regional LUPAS approach with farm household models. 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.